bin/57403: ntpd doesn't

[campbell+netbsd%mumble.net@localhost]

>Number:         57403
>Category:       bin
>Synopsis:       ntpd doesn't
>Confidential:   no
>Severity:       serious
>Priority:       medium
>Responsible:    bin-bug-people
>State:          open
>Class:          sw-bug
>Submitter-Id:   net
>Arrival-Date:   Fri May 12 10:15:00 +0000 2023
>Originator:     Taylor R Campbell
>Release:        netbsd-9 userland, netbsd-10ish kernel
>Organization:
The NtpBSD Foundation
>Environment:
drifting into a time of climate-induced resource conflicts
>Description:
ntpd doesn't seem to keep the time on my laptop.

May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1173]: ntpd 4.2.8p11-o Sat Sep 29 17:04:56 EDT 2018 (import): Starting
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1173]: Command line: /usr/sbin/ntpd -u ntpd:ntpd -i /var/chroot/ntpd -p /var/run/ntpd.pid
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: proto: precision = 0.926 usec (-20)
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: Listen and drop on 0 v6wildcard [::]:123
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: Listen and drop on 1 v4wildcard 0.0.0.0:123
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: Listen normally on 2 lo0 127.0.0.1:123
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: Listen normally on 3 lo0 [::1]:123
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: Listen normally on 4 lo0 [fe80::1%2]:123
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: Listening on routing socket on fd #25 for interface updates
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: kernel reports TIME_ERROR: 0x41: Clock Unsynchronized
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: kernel reports TIME_ERROR: 0x41: Clock Unsynchronized
May 12 09:29:02 singbulli ntpd[1109]: running as non-root disables dynamic interface tracking

After a few days it has drifted by a few seconds from another machine.  Stopping ntpd and running `ntpdate 2.netbsd.pool.ntp.org' fixes it for the moment but then it drifts again even after I restart ntpd.

Not sure what other diagnostics to get out of this.  The TIME_ERROR: 0x41: Clock Unsynchronized business looks bad.
>How-To-Repeat:
1. Leave ntp.conf unmodified.
2. Set  ntpd=YES ntpd_chrootdir=/var/chroot/ntpd  in /etc/rc.conf.
3. Boot normally.
4. Try to use a TOTP authenticator and get confused why it's out of sync.
>Fix:
Yes, please!